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The 1 March election is about to be an insider patron-client struggle, with quite a lot of oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and in the long run a better slice of the pie within the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that’s the Islamic Republic, Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi write.
Friday marks parliamentary election day within the Islamic Republic of Iran — or so the regime will need the sector to imagine.
Cue the staged queues lining up on the poll field able to ship their rehearsed script on “Islamic democracy” to global reporters, who will in flip flaunt their “rare and exclusive” stories in Iran.
And whilst some mainstream media shops within the West will undoubtedly fall into the Ayatollah’s lure, polling day on 1 March is the rest however a unfastened and honest vote.
Of path, this may (expectantly) come as no wonder to many: there are not any democratic elections in Iran.
Rather, all applicants are pre-approved through the 84-year-old ideal chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who regulations with absolute authority as God’s consultant on Earth — and the result is manufactured to his style.
But even for the criteria of the Islamic Republic, election engineering has been exceptional this time round.
A patron-client struggle is ready to spread
The loss of penalties for the Islamic Republic has intended the prior to now self-conscious Khamenei now not cares what the sector thinks of his regime.
He has pulled off the veil of electoral “legitimacy” and uncovered the bare totalitarianism of his regime.
In the method, we’ve witnessed mass disqualifications or even the boycotting of the vote through some parts of the Islamist left (frequently wrongly depicted as “reformists”).
In flip, simplest the Islamist proper — the social base of Khamenei and his omnipotent paramilitary power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — has been authorized to run for place of business.
But “electoral” pageant, if we will name it that, isn’t between political events. Instead, 1 March will probably be an insider patron-client struggle, with quite a lot of oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and in the long run a better slice of the pie within the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that’s the Islamic Republic.
Competition is centred on egos, personalities and assets, now not political persistent according to se. After all, the legislature in Iran, the Majlis, has little or no, if any, authority — and the a hit applicants will probably be not anything greater than Khamenei’s minions.
So, who’re the patron-client networks scuffling with it out?
The infighting of the outdated guard
In most straightforward phrases, this mafia-like tussle is between the outdated cohort of Khamenei absolutists and the ideal chief’s more youthful technology of zealots.
The figureheads of each and every extended family have produced a listing of Khamenei pre-approved applicants that may constitute their community at the “ballot”.
While a few of these consumers have entered the race themselves, others have most popular to lead from afar — and, in doing so, provide themselves as much less opportunistic.
The outdated guard all fall underneath 3 major figures.
The first is none as opposed to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the incumbent Majlis speaker who has earned the name of the IRGC’s “most corrupt commander” — a outstanding fulfillment given the already rampant corruption within the Guard.
ADVERTISEMENTGhalibaf’s most up-to-date corruption scandal came about this week, with leaked paperwork revealing his son laundering masses of hundreds of greenbacks in Western banks.
Until now, Ghalibaf has been often bailed out through Khamenei’s shut circle each and every time he has discovered himself in a corruption scandal. But the newest case might end up too some distance — and it has supplied his fighters with ammo to strike.
Next in line is Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel, a senior adviser to the ideal chief. Hadad-
Adel could be very a lot within the inside circle of Khamenei attached thru circle of relatives family members, along with his daughter married to Khamenei’s power-hungry son, Mojtaba — tipped to be the following ideal chief.
Last however in no way least is fiery hardline cleric Morteza Aghatehrani. Aghatehrani was once the coed and protégé of the overdue Ayatollah Mohammad Taqhi Mesbah-Yazdi, the IRGC’s ideological forefather who as soon as issued a fatwa that inspired acid assaults on girls with “improper” hijab.
ADVERTISEMENTWhile this outdated cohort will probably be scuffling with out between themselves, their major struggle will probably be with the more youthful technology of elites who’re simply as, if now not extra, radical and excessive. They will also be break up into two patron-client teams.
The ‘children’ don’t seem to be alright
The first falls underneath Mehrdad Bazrpash, incumbent Minister for Roads and Urban Development and the previous IRGC’s Student Basij Organisation for Sharif University — an entity sanctioned for gross human rights violations.
Bazrpash’s upward thrust came about underneath Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when at simplest 27, the previous hardline president made him head of “Saipa” and “Pars Khodro”, two of the largest automotive production firms in Iran — all as a praise for his ideological dedication.
While Bazrpash is probably not without delay taking part, he’ll be fielding applicants underneath his political faction known as “Sharayan”.
And in the end, there’s the brand new loopy at the block: the IRGC-affiliated Ali Akbar Raeifpour.
ADVERTISEMENTRaefipour will also be very best described as a thorough antisemitic conspiracy preacher. He has teamed up with Saeed Mohammad — a tender and radical IRGC commander who had emerging political ambitions that had been lower brief through the Guard’s outdated cohort, now not least Ghalibaf.
Despite the noise, Raeifpour’s community is not going to mount a significant problem to the outdated oligarchic elite.
But the truth that this radical preacher, whose extremism was once as soon as thought to be being “too irrational” even for segments of the hardline clerical established order is indicative of the “dumbification” of the regime.
The “dumbification” refers to Khamenei’s systematic effort to interchange revel in and information for absolute ideological dedication — or what his circle has termed “purification”.
The regime does not care
This mafia-like pageant between the ideal chief’s older and more youthful zealots within the Majlis is the same to that of the approaching elections for the so-called “Assembly of Experts”, that are additionally going down on 1 March.
ADVERTISEMENTIn concept, this frame is chargeable for settling on the following ideal chief, however in observe, it’s tightly managed through Khamenei.
In the previous 5 years, as a part of his manifesto for the following 40 years, Khamenei has been ready to completely personalise persistent within the Islamic Republic and “purify” its ranks so to make certain the triumph of his cult of character throughout each and every department of presidency.
In doing so, the 84-year-old ayatollah’s objective is to each ensure a clean succession procedure — ousting all however absolutists — and to make sure his hardline Islamist ideology outlives him.
While those patron-client oligarchs will probably be scuffling with it out for a larger percentage of the pie, the vast majority of the Iranian other people have paid no consideration to the election circus.
According to state-backed figures, that are all the time inflated, as few as 15% of Iranians within the capital Tehran are making plans to in truth move to the polls. Not that the regime cares.
ADVERTISEMENTInevitably, there will probably be just one winner from subsequent week’s “vote” — specifically, Khamenei himself.
Kasra Aarabi is Director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) analysis at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), specialising in Iranian army and safety affairs and Shi’a extremism. He may be a non-resident student on the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. Saeid Golkar is Senior Advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and UC Foundation Associate Professor within the Department of Political Science on the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.
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