Our Experts Pick 12 Teams That Can Win the Men’s N.C.A.A. Tournament

We don’t have many laws of thumb —what with handiest 4 overall thumbs between us — for selecting an NCAA Tournament bracket. But there’s one we consider in wholeheartedly: Don’t overthink it.

To that finish, there’s one thing easy to remember (all over again) when opting for your Final Four and nationwide champion. After Connecticut gained all of it closing yr, 18 of the closing 21 champs ranked some of the height six at KenPom.com ahead of the NCAA Tournament. (Tell us once more why Ken Pomeroy isn’t simply settling on the sphere yearly?) So, yeah, the highest six can be an invaluable position to begin when you had been, say, compiling a listing of groups that might rather win this yr’s nationwide identify. So that’s the place we began.

But what about 2003 champion Syracuse, which ranked twentieth in KenPom ahead of the event? Or 2011 and 2014 UConn, which ranked fifteenth and twenty fifth ahead of the dance? There are exceptions to each rule, after all, so our listing had to make room for attainable outliers. We didn’t overthink the ones both. SEC and ACC regular-season champ, Big Ten event champ and a few blue bloods stocked with NBA skill.

This is the listing. We’d be surprised in case your 2024 NCAA champion isn’t on it.

The KenPom height six

Connecticut (31-3)

Why they are able to win all of it: Do we wish to elaborate right here? The protecting champs simply steamrolled during the season with the No. 1 offense, No. 11 protection and rarely any hiccups alongside the best way. You wish to win six directly on this event to take the identify, and UConn has gained seven in a row, 14 in a row and 7 extra in a row rolling into this tournament. Your eyeballs will let you know Dan Hurley’s crew has slightly bit (or so much) of the whole thing, however simply to substantiate: Pull up the Huskies’ KenPom profile and in finding one thing they’re dangerous at. Good success. This crew is top-10 in efficient field-goal proportion offense and protection, rebound margin, help proportion, block proportion, and on and on. They shoot it nice from deep — Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton have all made 60-plus 3s — and protect the fringe and feature 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan protective the rim. They have poised faculty vets and high-end professional potentialities in Clingan and five-star freshman Stephon Castle. If you had been cooking up a roster able to going back-to-back, this will be the recipe.

The issues: Food poisoning? OK, glance, this crew isn’t easiest, however there aren’t obtrusive problems both. There’s at all times the danger of an ice-cold taking pictures night time, and the Huskies hit a blended 7 of 37 3s in losses to Creighton and Seton Hall. There’s at all times the danger of every other crew taking pictures the lighting out, and the 2 easiest 3-point taking pictures video games in opposition to UConn this season (Kansas and Creighton) had been each losses. But Hurley and corporate mitigate the ones dangers in addition to somebody in America. They’ve made a minimum of seven 3s in 26 of 34 video games. They’ve handiest allowed double-digit made 3s 4 occasions all yr. That leaves attainable damage — the Huskies weathered stretches with out Clingan and Castle — and a shockingly tough East Region for the No. 1 general seed as the most important imaginable potholes. Two of closing yr’s Final Four groups, FAU and San Diego State, may well be second-round and Sweet 16 matchups. Then the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 event champions, Auburn, Illinois and Iowa State, lurk within the backside part of that area. That gauntlet, greater than any obtrusive wart, is the true danger to a repeat. — Kyle Tucker

Houston (30-4)

Why they are able to win all of it: The maximum whole protection in faculty basketball. (“bUt tHeY jUsT gOt bLoWn oUt!” Yes, and? Every No. 1 seed this yr has a double-digit loss.) We know Houston’s 28-point loss to Iowa State within the Big 12 championship wasn’t a perfect glance, but it surely doesn’t erase the truth that the Cougars had the No. 1 protection nearly all of the season till Iowa State handed them over the weekend. The visible’s gonna be simpler — and compact — than anything else we will write, particularly with KenPom’s handy-dandy color-coded ratings:

Kelvin Sampson’s closing 4 groups, courting again to his 2021 Final Four squad, have all completed height 10 in adjusted defensive potency — however this crew is the stingiest of the bunch, a minimum of statistically talking. The Cougars permit the fewest issues and made baskets within the nation. But on height of that suffocating protection, Houston tests the remainder of the containers, too. Elite trainer? Sampson simply gained the USBWA’s Henry Iba Award (for trainer of the yr). Elite lead guard? Jamal Shead — who’s averaging 14 issues, 7.3 assists, 4.2 rebounds, and a couple of.6 steals the closing 10 video games — used to be named a first-team All-American on Tuesday, and most likely can be defensive participant of the yr, too. Age and event enjoy? The Cougars get started 3 seniors and a junior, and main scorer LJ Cryer used to be a freshman on Baylor’s 2021 identify crew. And, finally, a manageable draw? Absolutely; who is aware of how wholesome Tyler Kolek can be for No. 2 seed Marquette, No. 3 seed Kentucky is allergic to protection, and No. 4 seed Duke has misplaced two directly whilst getting bullied each and every recreation. The trail is there.

The issues: We gonna speak about that 28-point loss to Iowa State, or nah? That wasn’t only a beatdown; it used to be the worst lack of Sampson’s Houston tenure. It used to be additionally, sadly, evidence of why the Cougs could be essentially the most inclined No. 1 seed. Houston’s intensity has been completely depleted — 3 gamers, maximum lately freshman giant JoJo Tugler, have suffered season-ending accidents — and now beginning ahead J’Wan Roberts is banged up, too. Roberts suffered a shin damage within the Big 12 semifinals, and he handiest controlled 13 mins vs. the Cyclones ahead of exiting. There’s no understating how large an damage this is for an already injury-riddled crew. Houston prospers on offensive rebounding (thirteenth nationally) and second-chance issues, and Roberts is important in each respects. If the 6-foot-7 senior — who leads the crew in rebounding, is moment in blocks, and 0.33 in steals — can’t move, or although he’s simply now not his commonplace self, it’s laborious to check Houston having sufficient dimension or our bodies to continue to exist the area. — Brendan Marks

Purdue (29-4)

Why they are able to win all of it: In addition to a top-five offense and top-25 protection, which normally places you in an excessively small crew of contenders, it is helping to have one thing no person else in faculty basketball does — a 7-foot-4, 285-pound unstoppable drive. Zach Edey ran away with nationwide participant of the yr for a moment directly season, averaging 24 and 12, and used to be even higher this time. But the most important explanation why to consider those Boilermakers will prevail the place such a lot of others have failed is the supporting solid. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones have given Edey the type of backcourt firepower it takes to win in March. Smith is moment nationally in assists (Purdue is height 5 in help proportion) and he shot 45 p.c from 3 this season. He’s now not on my own in his marksmanship. The Boilermakers rank No. 2 nationally in 3-point proportion (40.8) and feature 4 guys who’ve made greater than 45 3s. Guards win in March, and this crew has profitable guards. But additionally that large human for whom no person has any solution. Recent event historical past apart, that could be a championship aggregate. But about that more thing …

The issues: PTSD. We may just speak about whether or not the Boilermakers’ dramatically advanced guard mess around Edey will dangle up underneath power — or the truth that the second-most necessary participant, Smith, assists in keeping taking place and taking a look critically injured and scaring the residing daylights out of everybody in West Lafayette — however the greatest hurdle for Purdue is the psychological one. Matt Painter’s crew has been disenchanted through double-digit seeds in each and every of the closing 3 tournaments: as a No. 4 seed through 13-seed North Texas within the 2021 first around, as a No. 3 seed through 15-seed Saint Peter’s within the 2022 Sweet 16 and as a No. 1 seed through 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in closing yr’s first around. Not to say the devastation of an extra time loss to eventual champion Virginia within the 2019 Elite Eight. That more or less repeated heartache sticks with you. Imagine if in style Cinderella choices McNeese State or Samford are there ready within the Sweet 16 this time. It’s laborious to consider slightly worry and doubt wouldn’t start to creep in, and that would be the greatest problem over the primary two weekends, as Purdue chases its first Final Four since 1980. — Tucker

Auburn (27-7)

Why they are able to win all of it: Ridiculous intensity. Nobody in faculty basketball has extra of it than the Tigers, who by no means get drained as a result of Bruce Pearl simply assists in keeping rotating in recent legs to fly up the ground on offense and clamp down on protection. Johni Broome has performed like an All-American, however this crew’s sum is larger than its portions. Auburn is going 10-deep with guys averaging between 14 and 25 mins. Pearl has a Noah’s Ark roster: two of the whole thing. It wears fighters down, which has so much to do with the entire blowout victories. The Tigers swept two conferences with South Carolina, which completed in a four-way tie for moment position within the SEC, through a blended margin of 71 issues. They’ve gotten scorching on the precisely the proper time, so much just like the 2019 crew Pearl resulted in this system’s first Final Four, profitable six directly getting into this event. They’re additionally the one crew in America with a top-10 offense and protection. They’re No. 4 in KenPom, No. 5 within the NET, and in the event that they weren’t in one of these stacked area, they’d most likely be a a lot more in style select to make it to Phoenix.

The issues: Auburn’s draw, for starters. And that draw is tied to the opposite fear: how the Tigers have fared in opposition to height festival this season. They misplaced their handiest assembly with each and every of the highest two groups within the SEC, Tennessee and Kentucky, and feature only one win in opposition to a NET top-25 crew. That used to be in opposition to 11-loss Alabama. There’s additionally a nonconference loss to (albeit superb) Appalachian State. Auburn gained a ton of video games, 26 of them through double digits, which is helping juice the metrics, however there’s simply now not truly any evidence it may possibly beat the most efficient groups within the nation. That’s the way you run up one of these gaudy report and roll to an SEC event identify — beating the league’s No. 5, 9 and six seeds — however handiest earn a No. 4 seed within the NCAA Tournament. Auburn’s higher part of the East Region comprises 3 2023 Final Four groups; San Diego State may well be ready in the second one around, UConn or FAU within the Sweet 16. The backside part of that area comprises Big Ten event champion Illinois and Big 12 event champion Iowa State, either one of that have authentic Final Four aspirations. Successfully run that gauntlet and the critics can be quieted. — Tucker

Iowa State’s protection is title-worthy, however how concerning the Cyclones’ offense? (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)

Iowa State (27-7)

Why they are able to win all of it: Because the Cyclones already gained the most efficient convention in America? Oh, and since doing so additionally intended stealing the “No. 1 defense” identify from Houston. May we provide the next:

Iowa State held Houston to 41 issues, the fewest a crew has allowed in a win over AP Number 1 since…

Iowa State beat Wilt Chamberlain and Kansas, 39-37, on Jan. 14, 1957 in Ames.

— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) March 17, 2024

T.J. Otzelberger’s crew has gotten a variety of love the closing week or two, however we’ve been at the Cyclones — regardless of doubts from Power Rankings commenters — since early January. They possibly aren’t as wholly suffocating as Houston has been, however when it comes to turnovers, and particularly steals? No one does it higher. Iowa State averaged 10.4 steals in step with recreation this season, changing them (in step with CBB Analytics) into 21 issues off turnovers in step with recreation, essentially the most within the nation. Six other gamers moderate a minimum of one thieve in step with recreation, however none greater than Tamin Lipsey’s 2.8 in step with contest; that’s essentially the most of any high-major participant in America. Speaking of Lipsey, he and backcourt mate Keshon Gilbert are poised to turn into two of the celebrities of March. Together, they account for 26.1 issues, 9.2 assists, 9.2 rebounds, and four.7 steals in step with recreation, and each are able to going off in any given recreation. Gilbert’s the simpler scorer of the 2 — he used to be named maximum exceptional participant of the Big 12 championship, courtesy of his 16 issues, six rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals vs. Houston — however Lipsey has proven the proclivity for snatch moments. (See: his moment part vs. BYU on March 6, which cemented ISU’s undefeated house season.) Could this be the varsity’s first modern-era Final Four crew?

The issues: History. A whopping 25 of the closing 26 nationwide champions have entered the NCAA Tournament with a top-20 offense and a top-45 protection. (The lone exception? That can be 2014 UConn, the outlier of all outliers.) Broad strokes, we all know, however Iowa State’s offense — recently fifty fifth in step with KenPom — is a long way outdoor that vary. The Cyclones slightly moderate 75 issues in step with recreation, outdoor of the highest 100 nationally, in large part as a result of they’ve handiest scored that a lot in 5 video games this calendar yr … out of 21 alternatives. They don’t take, or make, many 3s, both. Couple that with a frightening draw — aka, being in UConn’s area — and Iowa State may have to move thru a couple of high-major convention champions simply to make the Final Four. Whoever comes out of the East may have survived a assassin’s row to take action. — Marks

Arizona (25-8)

Why they are able to win all of it: Only 3 groups within the nation have a top-10 offense and protection getting into the Big Dance: UConn (duh), Auburn (metrics darling), and … Arizona. There isn’t a lot Tommy Lloyd’s crew is dangerous at. Need to attain a host in a shootout? Cool, can do; the Wildcats are the third-highest-scoring crew within the nation at 87.9 issues in step with recreation. Need to close down a high-powered offense? Also at the menu; Arizona held all of Alabama, Duke, and Wisconsin — whose offenses rank No. 1, 7, and 13 within the nation, respectively — under one level in step with ownership this season. And stylistically, the Wildcats are as flexible as they arrive. Be it Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love out of the backcourt, wings Keshad Johnson and Pelle Larsson at the perimeter, or bigs Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas within, Lloyd’s crew can beat you any selection of tactics. Lastly, we’d be remiss to not point out Arizona’s distinctive enjoy. The Wildcats, wildly, have gamers who starred in either one of the closing two nationwide championship video games: Love (from UNC), and Johnson (from San Diego State). What’s the worth of that to a crew with the entire on-paper skill to win all of it? We’re about to determine.

The issues: For as just right a regular-season trainer as Lloyd has been — he gained extra video games his first two seasons within the barren region than every other Division I males’s trainer in historical past — we can not forget about that his first two Arizona squads bowed out early: a Sweet 16 loss to Houston (as a No. 1 seed) two years in the past, and a first-round flameout in opposition to No. 15 Princeton closing yr. Not ideally suited. Plus, the Wildcats’ backcourt stays extremely unstable. Reclassified sophomore level guard Kylan Boswell has been just right every now and then … and borderline horrible at others. And then there’s Love, who has been much-improved this season — it stays hilarious that he’s the overall Pac-12 Player of the Year — however who has been identified to shoot his crew out of video games, too. (See: his 2-of-11, four-turnover efficiency in Arizona’s Pac-12 event loss to Oregon.) Love used to be a key reason UNC reached the nationwide identify in 2022 … and an similarly key explanation why the ones Tar Heels coughed up a 15-point halftime lead vs. Kansas. We’re nonetheless manifesting an Arizona vs. North Carolina Elite Eight recreation, however who is aware of which backcourt Lloyd gets any given recreation day. — Marks

Make it seven…

Tennessee (24-8)

Why they are able to win all of it: Because Rick Barnes has a normally elite protection, which ranks No. 3 nationally in adjusted potency, No. 7 in efficient field-goal protection and No. 9 in 2-point proportion, but in addition now a nuclear offensive weapon. SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht is arguably essentially the most bad scorer in faculty basketball. He’s dropped 25-plus issues 11 occasions, 35-plus 5 occasions, and averaged a daft 25.8 issues during the last 18 video games. Thanks to their 6-foot-6 flamethrower, the Volunteers have a top-30 offense for the primary time since 2019, after they went 30-6 and misplaced in extra time within the Sweet 16. Junior guard Zakai Zeigler, the SEC’s help chief and Defensive Player of the Year, is the Vols’ engine on each ends. He and Knecht supply one of the vital easiest one-two punches within the subject.

GO DEEPER

Rexrode: Vols’ cave in in Nashville will have to gas NCAA Tournament adventure or it is going to be brief

The issues: First, the historical past. Rick Barnes is an excellent trainer who’s making his twenty eighth NCAA Tournament look — unfold throughout 4 faculties — however we will have to recognize what number of truly just right groups he’s had that did not make a deep run. (Including a second-round go out with Kevin Durant at Texas!) Just 3 Elite Eights and one Final Four (21 years in the past now) from all the ones bids. The closing 5 tournaments at Tennessee, he’s earned a No. 3, 2, 5, 3 and four seed and now not made it previous the Sweet 16. The Vols getting blown out closing week of their SEC event opener because the No. 1 seed gained’t calm any fears that every other nosedive is coming. Fifth-year senior Santiago Vescovi’s bizarre disappearing act this season is arguably the most important particular explanation why to doubt this actual Tennessee crew. Over the closing seven video games, Vescovi averaged simply 3.3 issues, shot 23 p.c from the sphere and made 4 of twenty-two 3s. In the former two seasons, he averaged 12.9 issues and shot 39 p.c from deep. If Vescovi can’t snap out of his contemporary funk, it’s laborious to consider those Vols in any case breaking thru in March. — Tucker

OK, another from the highest 10

North Carolina (27-7)

Why they are able to win all of it: Because having the most efficient guard within the country has a tendency to be helpful come March. R.J. Davis — the ACC Player of the Year who used to be additionally named a first-team All-American this week — has been stupendous, particularly at the heels (pun meant) of closing season’s crisis in Chapel Hill. Davis has been an enormous piece of that turnaround, a constant 20-plus point-per-game scorer with an inherent ability for the snatch. His two past due 3-pointers buried Pittsburgh — and most likely the Panthers’ NCAA Tournament probabilities — within the ACC semifinals, and that’s simply his newest sufferer. Beyond Davis, although, North Carolina is phenomenally balanced: a top-25 offense, a top-5 protection, and enjoy around the board. If being “old” is a superb factor, then for sure the sixth-oldest crew in America is well-prepared for any adversity that comes its means. Speaking of age: Armando Bacot is in his ultimate season of eligibility — sure, truly, we promise — and made the All-ACC defensive crew for the primary time in his profession. When North Carolina defends adore it’s able to, with Bacot because the quarterback on that finish, the Tar Heels are borderline unimaginable to overcome. Hubert Davis is handiest in his 0.33 season, however he’s already coached in an NCAA championship recreation ahead of, so he is aware of the right way to string in combination wins and hit the entire proper notes this time of yr. Behind Bacot, Davis the trainer, and Davis the participant, UNC has a trio that’s been with regards to the highest of the mountain — and has the entire items to climb the closing rung.

GO DEEPER

R.J. Davis is it. Just ask Pitt

The issues: Defensive slippage, and an offense that also is going bloodless for stretches. North Carolina overlooked 12 directly photographs past due in the second one part of the ACC championship vs. NC State, which sank its possibilities of sweeping the convention regular-season and event titles. Those sessions the place the rim shrinks right down to the dimensions of a donut nonetheless occur a long way too incessantly; in maximum of UNC’s losses this season, a kind of past due stretches has been accountable. And as for the protection: Per BartTorvik’s sorting device, since February started, UNC is right down to No. 17 in adjusted defensive potency. Still just right, high-quality … however now not elite. If NC State, taking part in its 5th recreation in 5 days, may just exploit it, then so will different groups with extra firepower. And, after all, we need to point out the looming Elite Eight matchup that extends past any basketball research. There’s an international during which Love and Arizona, if seeding holds, are the one factor preventing UNC from its moment Final Four berth in 3 seasons. The content material can be electrical. But UNC lovers understand how bad Love can also be within the postseason — and the way motivated he’d be to be his easiest self in opposition to his former crew. — Marks

Honorable mentions

Creighton: May I hobby you in a crew with a top-25 offense and protection, which additionally returns a core from closing season’s Elite Eight? Which got here inside of one loose throw and a questionable foul name of constructing the Final Four? Introducing Creighton! Not to piggyback on Rick Pitino or anything else, however the Big East used to be a gauntlet this season, and Creighton’s second-place end affirms that Greg McDermott’s crew has the good things. Plus, it has one thing particular now not many groups can tout: an honest-to-goodness win over UConn, courtesy of 14 made 3-pointers. (If there’s a formulation for taking down the Huskies, credit score to the Bluejays for uncovering it.) Baylor Scheierman used to be simply named an All-American, Ryan Kalkbrenner is without doubt one of the easiest (and maximum slept-on) bigs in America — each when it comes to rim coverage and internal scoring — and Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth have each put at the Superman cape every now and then this season. With age, duration, event enjoy, and skill, there’s so much to love concerning the Bluejays. — Marks

Can Steven Ashworth and Creighton win all of it? (Brad Penner / USA Today)

Illinois (26-8): The Fighting Illini are seeking to turn into this yr’s model of 2023 Miami, which entered the NCAA Tournament with the Eleventh-rated offense and 137th-ranked protection … then stuck fireplace and made the Final Four regardless of its lack of ability to protect.This is a brand new period of faculty basketball, so the attempted and true profile of a countrywide identify contender (top-25 O and D) may now not at all times practice anymore. Brad Underwood’s crew undoubtedly hopes so. His crew ranks 0.33 in offensive potency and 97th on protection, in step with Bart Torvik’s web site. Terrence Shannon Jr., like Knecht, has 11 video games of 25-plus issues this season, together with a 40-burger within the Big Ten semifinals. Teammate Marcus Domask has scored 20-plus 10 occasions. Illinois can mild you up — it has scored 80-plus 22 occasions this season — so constantly that it would now not wish to lock you up. — Tucker

Boom-or-bust blue bloods

Kentucky (23-9): You know who else is hoping to be this yr’s Miami? John Calipari’s crew, which ranks 5th in offensive potency and 123rd in defensive potency. The Wildcats have means an excessive amount of offensive firepower to be a nine-loss crew that didn’t even win a recreation within the convention event. From All-SEC senior Antonio Reeves to nationwide freshman of the yr Reed Sheppard to the most efficient microwave scorer within the nation, Rob Dillingham, UK’s backcourt skill is off the charts. Kentucky leads the country in 3-point proportion (41.2) and is on tempo to be the most efficient taking pictures crew in program historical past. It can be a crying disgrace to waste that, however those Cats are liable to doing precisely that on account of a hopeless protection. They’ve allowed a median of 89.2 issues of their losses. The electrical offense is at all times going to present Kentucky an opportunity, however we simply can’t believe them to make their first deep run since 2019 till we see it occur. — Tucker

Duke: Like with Kentucky, skill isn’t the Blue Devils’ factor. Jon Scheyer has landed the country’s No. 1 and No. 2 recruiting categories his first two seasons succeeding Mike Krzyzewski, yielding a core as just right as any in America: All-America giant Kyle Filipowski, fellow sophomores Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor, and freshman sharpshooter Jared McCain. Those 4, plus senior Jeremy Roach — who has executed his easiest 2015 Quinn Cook affect this season — mix to shape the country’s No. 7 offense, in step with KenPom, which is able to mild fighters up from deep conveniently. The two problems with Duke, although — and the explanations none of our mavens picked them to make the Final Four — are protection and “competitive fire,” to thieve Scheyer’s phrases from the ACC event. Duke is 0-5 this season when it lets in 80 issues, and the loss of a sound rim protector has been a season-long fight. As for that “fire” (or lack thereof)? The Blue Devils were given driven round at house through rival UNC of their regular-season finale … and adopted that up through getting driven round to fellow Tobacco Road squad NC State within the ACC quarterfinals. No crew has ever misplaced its first convention event recreation and long past directly to win the Big Dance. Duke has the skill, however the mentality? We’re skeptical. — Marks

(Illustration through Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos of Donovan Clingan, Johni Broome and RJ Davis: Mitchell Layton, Greg Fiume and Andy Lyons / Getty Images)