The 10 Most Likely First-Round Stunners within the Men’s N.C.A.A. Tournament

Welcome again to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve neglected us, and we will be able to’t wait to crush you with our distinctive tackle NCAA event upsets, powered by way of our proprietary statistical type, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our paintings for years. But should you’re new to Bracket Breakers, right here’s the latest rationalization of who we’re, what we do and the state of Slingshot.

In the approaching days, we will be able to be offering deep regional previews of each and every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker sport (which means there should be a differential of no less than 5 seeds). We’ll additionally supply disenchanted possibilities for each and every attainable second-round matchup on Wednesday. You gained’t wish to fill out a bracket or position a moneyline guess with out testing that piece!

But as you start to digest the bracket, we would have liked to supply a handy guide a rough record of the ten likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything else towards the Palmetto State — in the end, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson give you the math in the back of Slingshot — however our type for sure isn’t bullish at the two power-conference groups from South Carolina.

As all the time, Slingshot seems to be at groups separated by way of no less than 5 seeds, estimates their fundamental strengths, adjusts the ones persistent rankings in keeping with how carefully each and every crew suits the statistical profiles of previous Davids or Goliaths, after which modifies them once more to account for matchups. This 12 months, we’ve upgraded our cluster research. And with out additional ado, the highest effects.

For extra Underdogs, concentrate to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. 

10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 p.c

2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Upset Chance: 43.2 p.c

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 38.2 p.c

4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Upset Chance: 30.8 p.c

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Upset Chance: 30.4 p.c

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 30.1 p.c

7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 p.c

8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 p.c

9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.4 p.c

10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Upset Chance: 20.4 p.c

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for analysis help.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)