Our Expert Predicts the Men’s N.C.A.A. Tournament

(Editor’s notice: This is a part of the Bracket Central Series, an within have a look at the run-up to the lads’s and ladies’s NCAA Tournaments, together with research and selections all through the tournaments.)

Since Florida repeated as nationwide champs in 2007, no protecting champion has complicated previous the Sweet 16. That ends this yr.

Connecticut is essentially the most entire staff in faculty basketball, and it’s going to finish that streak and repeat as nationwide champions. That used to be my pre-bracket prediction and I’m sticking with it, however the variety committee in point of fact has me uneasy about that prediction. The Huskies gained no favors as the tip general seed. You may argue that UConn has the hardest trail to Phoenix as any of the tip seeds. Iowa State has the most efficient protection in faculty basketball. Illinois has one of the most ideally suited offenses and used to be a staff pre-bracket that I used to be lovely certain I’d push via to the Final Four, and Auburn is the candidate to be this season’s UConn.

My different pre-bracket rule: Fade the Big 12. The league is essentially the most bodily within the nation and its groups, outdoor of Iowa State, are coming into the NCAA Tournament bruised and battered. And in the event you glance throughout the all-conference groups within the Big 12, the ability isn’t similar to previous years. There aren’t a large number of execs, and the ability is down. There are nonetheless a large number of just right groups, however for lots of the yr it felt like Houston used to be the one nice one. And Houston is a shell of itself at this time.

Sometimes it’s a curse to observe a large number of faculty basketball as it ends up in going too chalky. Last season, that will have got you in actual bother. This yr the tip is more potent. It’s now not simply the attention take a look at. Adjusted potency margins at KenPom.com recommend this as neatly. For example, remaining season’s No. 1 coming into the event (Houston) could be this season’s No. 3. Last season’s No. 2 (UCLA) would fall to No. 6 this yr. The numbers a yr in the past had been hinting at imaginable chaos. This yr lets get a extra chalky Final Four.

Now, perhaps you’ve come right here for assist along with your bracket. My recommendation: If you’re satisfied that UConn is the most efficient staff, then decide the Huskies. But in the event you’re now not, there’s a large number of price in choosing Purdue. The Boilermakers had been one of the most ideally suited two groups within the nation all season, however a large number of individuals are going to select an early disillusioned as a result of Matt Painter’s staff has misplaced within the first around in two of the remaining 3 tournaments — together with No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson remaining yr. This isn’t the similar Purdue staff. That one featured beginners guards who had been dressed in down. Now Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are sophomores, and Smith, specifically, has made a giant jump and is among the ideally suited level guards within the nation. He additionally has playmaking assist in Southern Illinois switch guard Lance Jones.

I’m sticking with UConn, however I’ve were given Purdue within the championship recreation.

Let’s get to the nitty gritty now. Here is a region-by-region breakdown.

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East Region

• The moment around is the primary imaginable pothole for UConn. Northwestern took Purdue to extra time two times this season and has one of the most best-scoring guards in America in Boo Buie. His skill to punish drop protection is why I’m hesitant to take Florida Atlantic within the first around. FAU’s protection is designed to surrender soar photographs within the mid-range. Buie doesn’t take a large number of mid-range jumpers, however he’s one of the most ideally suited pick-and-roll scorers within the nation and has an efficient field-goal share of 58.6 on photographs off the dribble, in step with Synergy.

The Owls have carried out their ideally suited coming off their lowest issues, and dropping to Temple within the AAC event used to be a low. Dusty May’s staff can be motivated and likewise doubtlessly a horrifying matchup for UConn, because the Owls additionally play their ideally suited towards height pageant — they knocked off Arizona in Las Vegas simply sooner than Christmas.

• Auburn is much underseeded in the event you’re a believer in metrics. The Tigers rank No. 4 at KenPom.com, and as mentioned previous, they’re a just right candidate to be the UConn of this event. UConn used to be additionally No. 4 at KenPom going into remaining yr’s bracket and likewise used to be a No. 4 seed with the protecting nationwide champs (Kansas) as its No. 1 seed in its area.

The Tigers have double-digit wins in 26 in their 27 wins. Last season, UConn had double-digit wins in 19 of its 25 victories heading into the NCAA Tournament after which gained all of its tourney video games by means of double digits. This is possible pothole No. 2 for the Huskies, assuming Auburn can get previous Yale (Ivy League used to be one of the most ideally suited mid-major leagues this yr) and San Diego State, which has one in all faculty basketball’s ideally suited scoring bigs in Jaedon LeDee.

• One sensible disillusioned decide on this area might be Duquesne over BYU. The Dukes hang their combatants to 31.7 % 3-point taking pictures, and BYU lives and dies by means of the three. Dayton is almost certainly the nearest an identical to BYU on Duquesne’s time table; Duquesne were given swept by means of Dayton within the common season however simply disillusioned the Flyers within the A-10 event.

• Drake can be a well-liked 10-7 disillusioned decide as it’ll have the most efficient participant at the ground in Tucker DeVries, who can be on the lookout for tourney redemption. Last season, Drake led Miami by means of 8 with beneath 5 mins to head and ended up blowing the past due lead, and DeVries scored 3 issues on 1-of-13 taking pictures in that recreation. Washington State is predicated so much on scoring throughout the arc and used to be the second-best offensive-rebounding staff within the Pac-12. Drake’s 2-point protection — permitting 51.9 % — isn’t nice, however it’s the most efficient defensive-rebounding staff within the nation.

Iowa State could have the most efficient homecourt benefit the hole weekend. Iowa State enthusiasts like to trip to look their Cyclones, and it’s a brief pressure to Omaha. They simply took over the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.

• Illinois has gained seven of 8 video games coming into the event, with that one loss coming to Purdue. The Illini have the positional dimension to check up with UConn. Their protection — 91st at KenPom — is suspect, but it surely doesn’t make a large number of sense while you have a look at the roster. Terrence Shannon Jr. is usually a lockdown defender at the perimeter when he needs to be, and Coleman Hawkins is among the maximum flexible defenders within the nation. Shannon is averaging 31.8 issues over his remaining 4 video games, and he could be the hardest wing in faculty basketball to protect. (It’s him or Dalton Knecht.)

I’m now not certain Illinois has the defensive self-discipline to deal with the entire motion and off-ball screening motion from UConn, however I used to be tempted to make this disillusioned decide. If UConn finally ends up repeating, the Final Four may finally end up an more straightforward two video games than the second one weekend. UConn doesn’t play via Donovan Clingan within the publish so much, however this generally is a recreation to provide him the ball so much, as he has a dimension and energy benefit on Hawkins. (The Illini do have behemoth Dain Dainja off the bench.) Clingan’s rim coverage may also be vital, as Shannon and Marcus Domask each reside within the paint.

If Tyler Kolek is wholesome, Marquette could make the Final Four. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

South Region

• Nebraska hasn’t ever gained a NCAA Tournament recreation, however that is the yr! The key can be seeking to stay Texas A&M off the offensive glass. The Aggies are the most efficient offensive-rebounding staff within the nation. Nebraska ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding fee. Whoever wins this recreation is a great candidate to disillusioned Houston.

• Houston is essentially the most susceptible No. 1 seed with J’Wan Roberts getting injured within the Big 12 event. Roberts, who harm his shin within the semis, did play within the ultimate however lasted best 13 mins. The Cougars also are lacking their two ideally suited bench gamers, and Kelvin Sampson doesn’t have a large number of self assurance in his reserves at this time.

One of the most efficient guns to have towards Houston’s ball-screen protection is a pick-and-pop, playmaking 5 and Nebraska has that during Rienk Mast. If it’s Texas A&M advancing within the first around, the Aggies can fit Houston’s physicality. And whilst Houston’s an ideal offensive-rebounding staff, it’s now not nice at this time at the defensive glass, particularly since dropping backup heart Joseph Tugler. The Aggies struggled taking pictures the ball lots of the season, however they’re averaging 83 issues and are 5-1 since putting Manny Obaseki into the beginning lineup.

I’ve long past backward and forward on who will win Nebraska-A&M. My preliminary intestine decide used to be Nebraska, however I’m wavering and would almost certainly alternate my decide if I hadn’t already submitted my bracket! But forgot the wavering. The Huskers don’t seem to be best going to win their first tourney recreation in class historical past; they’re making the Sweet 16.

• Wisconsin and Duke have tough first-round matchups, and Vermont or James Madison could be profitable disillusioned selections. I used to be hesitant as a result of I’ve were given Houston dropping and really feel like it is a robust 4-5 area. My common sense for choosing Wisconsin is that Duke’s internal protection is cushy. Wisconsin’s Steven Crowl is taking part in neatly and can be a matchup downside for Duke within the publish. Wisconsin is 15-6 when he ratings in double figures.

• Texas Tech is every other Big 12 staff harm by means of accidents. Starting heart Warren Washington has overlooked 8 of the remaining 9 video games, and he went scoreless in 13 mins in his one look all through that extend. Starting wing Darrion Williams, one in all Texas Tech’s maximum vital items, additionally sat out the Houston recreation with an ankle damage. I’d be expecting each to play, however NC State is already a difficult matchup with the red-hot DJ Burns. I used to be going to select towards the Wolfpack within the opening around as a result of I figured they’d be a drained staff, however the well being of the Red Raiders worries me extra.

• Marquette could have a difficult second-round recreation, whether or not it’s Florida, Colorado or Boise State. Both the Gators and Buffaloes are gifted, and the Broncos went 13-5 in a difficult Mountain West and had the league’s ideally suited offense in convention play. Also, there’s the worry of Tyler Kolek and his indirect damage.

But I’ve been top at the Golden Eagles all season, they usually’ve felt like a staff that may height in March after you have disillusioned in the second one around remaining season by means of Michigan State. Usually, when a veteran staff has a loss like that and returns maximum of its core, it’s a protected wager that the staff is going on a run. (See 2019 Virginia for essentially the most excessive instance.)

• Kentucky and Illini are the 2 groups on this bracket that give off essentially the most 2023 Miami vibes. Both are electrical on offense and suspect on protection. I accept as true with the Illini extra as a result of they’re older. If Marquette-Kentucky occurs within the Sweet 16, it’ll be tremendous watchable and most likely fast moving. Wish we knew precisely how wholesome Kolek can be, however Marquette is a nightmare matchup for Kentucky’s protection. Kentucky’s ball-screen protection has been brutal for far of the season, and Kolek and Oso Ighodaro are one of the most ideally suited pick-and-roll tandems within the nation. Marquette may also guard.

• Shaka Smart is 0-3 towards Wisconsin because the trainer at Marquette, together with a 75-64 loss in Madison this yr. That used to be one of the most worst video games of the season for Kolek and Ighodaro. The Badgers dared Kolek to shoot and took away Ighodaro at the roll. Ighodaro completed with simply 5 issues on 5 photographs, and Kolek went 1-of-5 from distance.

Since Jan. 15, the one two groups to overcome Marquette are Creighton and Connecticut. Marquette used to be now not reasonably in the suitable headspace early within the season when it misplaced that recreation but it surely’s quietly been one of the most ideally suited groups within the nation the remaining two months and nonetheless performed lovely neatly with Kolek sidelined. Smart is in any case going to get a win on this contention recreation, sending Marquette to its first Final Four since 2003.

West Region

This is the area ideally suited arrange for chaos, so let’s get bizarre.

• Mississippi State simply disillusioned Tennessee within the SEC event and has the our bodies to throw at North Carolina’s Armando Bacot. Chris Jans is among the ideally suited defensive coaches within the nation, and his staff is retaining combatants to 29.4 % taking pictures from deep. He’ll be sure you restrict the appearance for RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan.

The Bulldogs will tempt Elliot Cadeau into taking pictures. He’s noticed the dork protection sooner than — when groups sag off him at the perimeter — once in a while he’s baited into taking pictures. He’s made simply 8-of-44 3s all season. Jans has one in all the most up to date scorers within the nation too, with freshman guard Josh Hubbard averaging 25.4 issues over his remaining 8. A wise recreation plan and a sizzling Hubbard are the variation in the second one around. And if it’s Sparty taking part in the Heels, that’s a core that went on a wonder run remaining yr.

• Grand Canyon has one of the most ideally suited abilities on this area in Tyon Grant-Foster, the previous Kansas/DePaul wing who sat out the remaining two years with a middle downside and returned to the ground this season to reasonable 19.8 issues in step with recreation. I went to look Grant-Foster play for the primary time when he used to be the top-rated juco recruit at Indian Hills Community College in Iowa. He’s all the time had the ability, and Bryce Drew has introduced out the most efficient of him. This is among the maximum heartwarming tales in faculty basketball. Grand Canyon has a skilled roster round him too, however I’m choosing this disillusioned with my middle. It’d be cool to look Grant-Foster have his second in this degree.

• New Mexico used to be essentially the most gifted staff within the Mountain West however battled accidents and inconsistent play and completed 6th within the convention standings. But the Lobos were given sizzling this weekend, successful the MWC event, they usually’re wholesome now and metric darlings. They rank No. 23 at KenPom, in order that’d recommend they’re underseeded. They have a possible second-round matchup with Baylor, which has an elite offense however has been mediocre defensively the remaining two seasons.

The Lobos aren’t an ideal matchup for Arizona within the Sweet 16. When the Wildcats have struggled this yr, it’s been towards groups that may profit from Oumar Ballo within the pick-and-roll. The Lobos P&R handlers end the second-most possessions of any individual in faculty hoops, in step with Synergy. They have one of the most ideally suited guard trios within the nation in Donovan Dent, Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. They even have Nelly Junior Joseph, who is large and powerful sufficient to maintain Ballo at the blocks.

• I’m now not certain there’s a staff I believe at ease choosing within the Final Four on this area. This is the area the place it looks like the choice committee tousled. UNC and Arizona have the better paths to the Elite Eight, and I’m almost certainly dumb now not choosing both to get there. But, once more, this feels just like the spot for chaos. And the staff that would get advantages is Alabama, which had the most up to date offense in faculty basketball for in regards to the first seven weeks of the calendar yr.

The Crimson Tide shoot a ton of 3s, and with that may come some variance. They actually have a crummy protection. And they’re in that Kentucky/Illini class of electrical offense and suspect protection. Put Illinois on this area and I’d really feel nice hanging the Illini within the Final Four. I’m now not so at ease going with the Crimson Tide, but it surely’s a staff this is almost certainly higher than its document. Most will see 11 losses and get scared. Most will see losers of 4 in their ultimate six and get scared. But the event is incessantly a reset, and groups that play distinctive types are incessantly just right applicants to head on runs. Think a few of Jim Boeheim’s mediocre Syracuse groups of the previous.

Caleb Furst and Purdue beat Tennessee in November in Hawaii. Could they meet once more within the Elite Eight. (Steven Erler / USA Today)

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Midwest Region

• Gonzaga and Kansas are each going to be common Round 1 disillusioned selections. McNeese State is 30-3 and coached by means of former LSU trainer Will Wade. I used to be tempted. The Cowboys ruled the Southland, however that’s one of the most worst leagues in faculty basketball. Mark Few hasn’t misplaced within the first around since 2008 and his staff has a big dimension benefit.

Kansas has a self assurance downside and has been the second-worst 3-point taking pictures staff in faculty basketball the remaining six weeks. But Samford is if truth be told a just right matchup for the Jayhawks of their susceptible state. Because the Bulldogs press, it’ll permit Kansas to get out within the open ground. That’s the place Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr., KJ Adams and Johnny Furphy thrive. A fast moving recreation can be a welcome alternate from the once in a while slog of the Big 12.

• Oregon trainer Dana Altman is among the ideally suited postseason coaches. The Ducks have made the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 and a No. 12 of their remaining two tourney appearances. Altman is understood for blending defenses and complicated combatants within the postseason, and heart N’Faly Dante, who overlooked the primary part of the season, is taking part in his ideally suited ball of the yr. South Carolina trainer Lamont Paris can be training in best his moment NCAA Tournament recreation. The Gamecocks also are No. 49 at KenPom, so this might be just about a coin turn in Vegas. Feels like a great spot to select an disillusioned.

• Tennessee has one of the most highest second-round matchups regardless of if it’s Virginia, Colorado State or Texas. That first weekend must assist the Vols get their swagger again after dropping two directly entering the event. The key for Tennessee can be getting some offense from anyone along with Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler. Both Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi are in primary slumps.

Creighton-Tennessee generally is a nice Sweet 16 recreation, however right here’s making a bet the Vols seem like themselves once more the primary weekend and journey that self assurance to the Elite Eight. That’s the place it will get tough in the event that they play Purdue, who beat them 71-67 within the opening around of the Maui Invitational in a recreation the place neither staff performed that groovy. That used to be sooner than Zeigler, coming off offseason knee surgical operation, gave the impression of himself, however Zach Edey ruled. Not certain the Vols have a solution for slowing Edey, and the Vols couldn’t beat Purdue with Braden Smith having one in all his worst video games (six issues, one lend a hand, 3 turnovers). Purdue may finally end up reliving Honolulu, beating Tennessee and Marquette on its method to the nationwide identify recreation.

• Purdue has the very best trail to the Elite Eight of the entire No. 1 seeds, and for this reason it could be a wise champion decide. In my bracket, we get the nationwide championship between the 2 groups who’ve been on the height of the scores for lots of the yr and a recreation I’ve sought after to look. If it occurs, UConn has the massive in Clingan to sluggish Edey, and UConn has higher ability round its megastar giant guy. I don’t love UConn’s trail, but when we get this recreation, the Huskies are the extra entire staff. Purdue is predicated a ton on Smith and Edey, however all 5 of UConn’s starters may opt for 20-plus any given night time.

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(Photo of Donovan Clingan: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)