Men’s N.C.A.A. Tournament Live Updates: How to Watch the Round of 64

Every March, Sean Green and Ryan Kramer, CEOs of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, go back and forth from their corporate headquarters in Los Angeles to Las Vegas to absorb the primary weekend of the NCAA Tournament. And it is in Vegas the place a serendipitous number of window line led them to a practice — making a bet the “first half under” in all 36 first-round video games (together with the First Four). That has resulted in, in overall, 396 first-round bets since this began 13 years in the past.

“We were in line at the sportsbook and we just overheard a guy talking about it,” mentioned Kramer recalling a 2011 go back and forth to Vegas right through the match.

“He started listing off these reasons it was a great idea,” Green added. “I don’t think he realized what he stumbled on.”

The relaxation used to be historical past. Green and Kramer started their March Madness custom of making a bet each and every unmarried “first half under” within the first around proper there.

“Thou shalt bet every first half under,” Green proclaimed at the duo’s display, the “Sports Gambling Podcast.” “You have to bet every one (of them).”

There is, then again, a wrinkle. The books are catching up.

Since 2011, the “first half unders” have long gone 225-157-14 — in a tally Green and Kramer stay on their bets — for 58.9 p.c. In 9 of the 12 seasons they have got hit at 53 p.c or higher. In 5 of the ones 9 seasons, the “first half unders” hit at 60 p.c or higher.

In 2021, contemporary off of the pandemic and thrust into the bubble, the “first half unders” completed 26-7-3, in line with the duo — a 78.8 p.c hit price. That used to be the most efficient mark since 2013, once they hit at 70.6 p.c.

But since then, issues had been on somewhat of a slide.

The 2022 NCAA Tournament adopted up with every other successful efficiency — but it surely used to be considerably much less a hit. The “first half unders” had been 20-14-2, with a 58.9 p.c hit price.

Last 12 months, the fashion used to be simplest moderately successful after completing 18-16-2 at 53 p.c. Through the First Four this season, we’ve got a 2-2 file (however we are screaming “small sample!” from the rooftops).

So … is it nonetheless value it to observe the Green and Kramer and wager the entire unders? Former NC State guard Sam Hunt thinks so. Playing within the NCAA Tournament is a ways other from enjoying in an ordinary house recreation, he says.

“When you land, it’s like a parade,” Hunt explains. “A red carpet event. You have media. Open practice before your real practice. Then you’re playing in a gym you never played in before. The jitters are definitely flowing early in the game.”

Teams have to adjust to the new schedule. Some of the games are earlier than usual. And, for a lot of players, it takes a while to settle into the game.

So the question now becomes — how low can they go? Each tournament field has its own quirks and nuances. This year, low-seeded bubble teams got hot in their tournaments, made runs, and won automatic bids, bumping off significantly better teams. Plus, the transfer portal has brought players onto teams from all over, meaning a lot of these arenas might not be as unfamiliar as they once were. With a lower quality of team in this year’s tournament — and some teams coming in fatigued or battling minor injuries after playing several days in a row — the first half under may still be viable this year, but the fun could be coming to an end. In fact, as this declining trend gains steam, could “first part overs” now be the way to go?

My advice? If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. “First part unders” have proven in the past 13 years to hit more often than not — books have been given plenty of time to catch up. The players. The atmosphere. The moment. It’s enough to rattle anyone off their game.

And the books may not be as interested in lowering lines to combat the betting success as one would think, according to former Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan.

“There isn’t enough volume to impact a huge line swing,” he explains. “(‘First half unders’) is a thing until it’s not. The books are good with standing firm in their numbers.”

So is the possible downswing from 2021 to now just natural regression? Or has the landscape changed? The beauty of this time of year is that we’ll know the answer in two days, as the dust settles on the first round.