A Football Cognition Test Has Risen to Prominence. But How Much Can It Predict?

The reality is C.J. Stroud by no means let it get to him, at the same time as draft day neared and the questions began coming and the dialog round him shifted.

“Look at my perspective,” he’d say later. “I’m about to get drafted regardless of that dang test.”

He used to be proper — Stroud, the Ohio State quarterback who used to be some of the peak possibilities in closing yr’s NFL Draft, nonetheless went moment to the Houston Texans, and in a question of months, the 22-year-old would put in combination some of the prolific seasons through a rookie quarterback in league historical past, lifting a flagging franchise from the league cellar to the divisional around of the playoffs.

But his ascent used to be much less confident closing April, when Stroud’s on-field intelligence used to be being debated, even doubted. Most of this stemmed from his leaked ranking at the S2, a pre-draft cognition take a look at that has temporarily received credence across the NFL for its talent to measure a quarterback’s psychological capability and, some imagine, forecast his probabilities of long term good fortune.

Ten months later, it’s onerous to inform the tale of Stroud’s record-setting rookie season with out no less than addressing the reliability of that dang take a look at and what the following firestorm says concerning the draft procedure and the veracity of the ideas that trickles out alongside the best way. Too ceaselessly, in line with a number of high-ranking league executives granted anonymity through The Athletic so they might talk about Stroud and the take a look at with out tampering fees, essential context is lacking. Stroud’s case, they imagine, is a chief instance.

For starters, one exec questioned, why used to be his ranking leaked to the media within the first position? And through whom?

“I think it was thrown out there by a team that had their own goals and wanted to use it to put him down and gloat on what they wanted seen,” mentioned one common supervisor whose workforce used to be no longer within the working for a peak quarterback in closing yr’s draft.

“It was complete B.S. that it was leaked,” presented some other GM, “but people in our league can’t help themselves.”

Last spring, Stroud used to be recent off two stellar seasons because the Buckeyes’ starter and some of the maximum polished passers in a QB-heavy draft. Along with Alabama Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, he used to be within the working to be the primary general variety, owned through the Carolina Panthers. The Texans had the second one select. Both groups desperately wanted QBs.

Then, six days earlier than the draft, a purple flag: GoLong.com’s Bob McGinn, a veteran NFL reporter and previous contributor to The Athletic who speaks every year with league executives earlier than the draft, revealed the S2 result of a number of quarterbacks, together with Stroud and Young. The distinction between the 2 rankings, in step with McGinn’s reporting, used to be jarring. Young scored within the 98th percentile. Stroud scored within the 18th.

“That’s like a red alert, red alert, you can’t take a guy like that,” McGinn quoted a league govt announcing. “That’s why I have Stroud as a bust. That in conjunction with the fact that, name one Ohio State quarterback that’s ever done it in the league.”

Earlier this month, Stroud earned 48 of a conceivable 50 votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year. McGinn didn’t reply when requested about his reporting at the S2 take a look at closing yr.

The S2 cognition take a look at used to be first utilized by NFL groups earlier than the 2016 draft; the Nashville-based corporate based through two neuroscientists and previous school athletes is recently beneath contract with part of the league’s 32 groups, two in every department, who successfully pay for the exclusivity of the consequences.

The take a look at has risen in prominence in recent times, touted for its talent to measure a participant’s cognitive talent — particularly, in quarterbacks.

A placing instance, detailed closing yr in The Athletic, used to be that of Brock Purdy, the overpassed, undersized ultimate select of the 2022 draft who stepped in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo midway thru his rookie season and led the San Francisco 49ers to 8 immediately wins and a berth within the NFC Championship Game. This yr, Purdy went 12-4 as a starter, used to be one among 5 finalists for MVP and led the 49ers to Super Bowl LVIII.

When The Athletic printed that Purdy had aced the S2, it additional validated the take a look at’s credibility. And it didn’t harm that two of the most efficient quarterbacks within the league, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, had been additionally reported to have scored extraordinarily smartly. (Indeed, Burrow disclosed his personal ranking as being within the 97th percentile.)

The S2 is a nine-part battery of assessments that, not like its Wonderlic predecessor, doesn’t got down to measure an athlete’s intelligence. Instead, its objectives are quantifying processing pace, response time and the power to digest data and reply beneath duress.

“Historically, the NFL has been using different IQ tests to assess how ‘smart’ a player is,” one exec mentioned. “But to be honest, whether or not you can solve a trigonometry question or if you know how many presidents we’ve had … that doesn’t equate to football.”

The S2 lasts round 45 mins, finished the usage of a specifically designed gaming computer and reaction pad that tracks trend reputation and impulse keep an eye on. In principle, it will possibly reliably forecast how temporarily a quarterback’s thoughts can tick thru his progressions, or are expecting if the sport will ever really feel “too fast,” a word often utilized by coaches and evaluators.

“I did my homework on it, and I think the science behind it is really sound,” mentioned one league govt. “It gives you a snapshot of how quickly an individual can process information, and I don’t think there’s a better tool on the market for that. I feel really comfortable with the data we get back from S2.

“Is it foolproof? Absolutely not. Nothing’s foolproof. But it does give you a sense of how quickly a player can make split-second decisions.”

Every govt contacted for this tale wired that the S2 is simply one device amongst many used all the way through the draft procedure. Actual recreation tape is way more predominant, they mentioned, as are in-person interviews.

“It’s not the ultimate decision-maker,” one exec mentioned of the S2. “It allows you to confirm what you see on film, or it tells you to ask more questions.”

“You’re not sitting there saying, ‘Oh, tell me what his S2 is,’ then putting him in the second round,” some other mentioned. “There’s some positions where I don’t even look at their score at all.”

Houston trainer DeMeco Ryans downplayed the S2’s weight within the Texans’ decision-making procedure closing spring. “You don’t pick a guy based on a test,” Ryans mentioned in October. “It’s silly to say, ‘Take one metric,’ when there are so many different variables that go into drafting a guy.”

In his rookie season, Stroud led the Texans to a 10-7 list, an AFC South crown and a wild-card playoff win. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

The luster the S2 loved as a recent, leading edge new device within the all-important quarterback analysis has rubbed off in large part because of Stroud’s leaked ranking, the next season and the questions that adopted. “They Created a Test to Identify Star QBs,” a contemporary Wall Street Journal headline learn. “How Did It Miss the Best One in Years?”

The league executives contacted for this tale made it transparent they didn’t put a lot inventory in Stroud’s end result closing spring, believing from the start that the ranking used to be suspect. Several showed that S2 flagged the outcome after it got here in and that groups had been knowledgeable it used to be “unreliable.” (As a part of its confidentiality settlement with groups, S2 does no longer publicly unlock rankings and would no longer touch upon Stroud’s end result for this tale.)

“From my understanding, the S2 people had a lot of questions when his score came back in,” one exec mentioned. “It got leaked by a club, and they wanted to know why.”

The sense across the league: Stroud didn’t give complete effort. It’s extra believable than it sounds. For peak possibilities like Stroud, the draft procedure is a day-in, day-out grind — 4 lengthy months stuffed with on-field coaching, bodily assessments, written assessments, a media gauntlet, the Senior Bowl in Mobile, the scouting mix in Indianapolis, non-public workout routines with groups and top-30 visits.

Players every now and then finally end up taking the S2 on the finish of 12- or 14-hour days, the pros identified. Others merely don’t take a look at smartly or don’t imagine it’s all that predominant.

“If you only give 80 percent on this test, you’ll bomb it,” one league supply identified, “Period.”

“If I were to bet dollars to donuts, I would be stunned if Stroud gave 100 percent on the assessment,” mentioned some other. “When he took it, was he tired? Was he choosing not to give it his best? Was he nervous? Had he taken a million other tests that day? There’s a whole host of factors.”

Another exec mentioned the similar questions had been requested within the draft room he sat in closing April.

“It made us all say, ‘Wait a minute, what?’ You watch his tape, and his tape is awesome. He’s processing. He’s playing fast. He’s making good decisions. Maybe this is just an anomaly? Maybe he didn’t try?

“When it’s an outlier like this, you ask yourself, when and where did he take it? Was it his fourth test that day and he’d just had enough? Then you call the agent and say, ‘Hey, he scored really low on this. Can we get him to take it again?’”

It’s unclear if Stroud retook the take a look at closing spring, and most effective the quarterback himself is aware of if he gave complete effort. But all the way through an interview with The Athletic closing fall, he perceived to point out the take a look at used to be no longer a peak precedence all the way through the draft procedure.

“Some things I apply myself to, some things I don’t,” Stroud mentioned, requested particularly concerning the S2. “Look, I can show you my high school report card — I’m not a dumb kid. I’m not gonna lie, in school, I was lazy. I would get what I could get so I could play football. And I always had a 3.0 (GPA). That was the standard in my household. That was my mom’s rule.”

After the leak, the dialog round him shifted dramatically. Few — and nearly nobody in media — stopped to believe if the ranking used to be correct or no longer.

“Because people don’t care,” Stroud mentioned. “People like negativity these days … but I’m not mad at those (S2) people. It is what it is. I got down to how (the leak) happened, so I got some heads to bust in the offseason.”

With that, Stroud laughed. Asked to elucidate what he’d realized concerning the leak, he shook his head. He used to be high-quality letting his play do the speaking.

The fallout angered lots across the league. It nonetheless does.

“It paints the picture of the kid that’s a false narrative,” one exec mentioned.

In Indianapolis, Colts common supervisor Chris Ballard went on a post-draft rant at the topic. Ballard’s Colts had the fourth select, and he studied Stroud widely, understanding each him and Young privately in California. (With Young and Stroud off the board, the Colts took Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson.)

“I’m gonna go off on a sidebar here,” Ballard mentioned on draft weekend. “All the crap that comes out about these kids … it’s bullsh–. I’m sorry, but it’s bullsh–. Like, people leak these stories, these negative stories on kids, and I don’t agree with it. It’s bullsh–.

“They work their ass off to where they need to be, and then all week you gotta read (this) and they gotta answer questions on it. They’re good kids, and I thought (Stroud) had to take a beating he didn’t have to take.”

Earlier this month, The Athletic reported that no less than one company, Athletes First, which represents just about 30 draft-eligible possibilities — together with a handful of projected first-round alternatives — has steered its gamers towards taking any type of cognitive examination forward of this yr’s draft, a transparent reaction to the location Stroud discovered himself in closing spring.

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Sports company directing NFL Draft possibilities to skip cognitive assessments

After selecting Young first general, the Panthers maintained he used to be their desire all alongside. Former common supervisor Scott Fitterer mentioned Young’s S2 ranking performed a small position within the analysis.

“It’s a nice piece,” Fitterer mentioned on draft evening. “It reaffirms things.”

But Young, and his 98th percentile, staggered thru a disappointing rookie season. The talent-thin Panthers completed a league-worst 2-15. The peak select threw simply 11 touchdowns.

Including two playoff begins, Stroud completed with 4,557 passing yards, second-most in NFL historical past for a rookie passer — and 1,680 greater than Young. He opened the season with 192 consecutive go makes an attempt with out an interception, probably the most ever through a participant to start a profession.

He additionally led the league in passing yards in step with recreation (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6). Only Joe Montana and Tom Brady have had seasons by which they completed first in each classes.

Any doubt that Stroud couldn’t see the sector, or couldn’t procedure on the NFL stage, used to be put to leisure temporarily and definitively. Perhaps it by no means will have to were a query within the first position.

(Illustration: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; picture: Michael Owens / Associated Press)