“War in Europe: Year Two” was the topic of one of the most thought-provoking sessions at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos.
Hosted by Euronews’s Sasha Vakulina, the panel was made up of Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland, Gregory Meeks, Congressman for New York and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova and Jean-Pierre Clamadieu, Chairman of the Board at Engie Group.
What emerged was a picture of a resilient Western alliance, ready to support Ukraine for as long as is needed in its fight against Russian invasion. Watch the session in the video player above.
What they said
Sasha Vakulina, Euronews: The first question is going to be to Sanna Marin. To what extent has the war resulted in broad shifts when it comes to all these aspects: economic, political and also military links and connections across Europe? And in what ways can we expect these links and connections to continue to evolve this year as we’re going into year two of the war in Europe.
Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland: Well, thank you for having us in this panel. I fully agree with the Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, that the war is not only affecting Ukraine, it affects the whole of Europe, the whole world actually. We are seeing this geopolitical change in the world and there is a war of values going on in the world. The rules-based order is being challenged and this affects everyone: not only Ukraine, but everyone in the world. And the war affects Europe in very concrete ways as well. We are also not only in the war in Ukraine, but also in an energy war in Europe. Russia is using energy as a tool, as a weapon against Europe, and it tries to diminish our support to Ukraine. Putin tries to make us afraid of Russia, about what might happen. He wants us and our citizens to think, what are the prices of the war? And we are already seeing people frustrated with the high energy prices everywhere in Europe. But the answer is not to weaken our support towards Ukraine. The answer needs to be actually the opposite. We need to send more support to Ukraine, more weapons, more humanitarian aid, more financial aid to make sure that the war will end as soon as possible and for a Ukrainian win. And this is crucial. So our aspect of Putin’s screwdriver that he is using now with the energy against Europe should be that we are sending more support for Ukraine
Sasha Vakulina: President Sandu, alongside socio-economic disruptions, what are the other key points of vulnerability with the effects of the war exposed in Europe and what is being done to mitigate those vulnerabilities? Because your country has a very specific position when it comes to this war in Europe and Russia’s aggression on Ukraine.
Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova: Of course, Moldova was more vulnerable because it depended 100% on gas purchases before the war started. Now we get only 40% of our gas needs from Gazprom, and we managed to quickly to diversify and to find other sources to supply energy to the country. The propaganda – which is a very big issue, disinformation, is of course a big issue for my country. But I think this is a big issue for many countries and we need to learn how to be more efficient to tackle this issue: it’s cyber security.
I totally agree with the issue that Russia counted on blackmailing us with the energy crisis and Europe managed to find a solution. And this was not easy. And yes, we have to pay a price and we feel bad that our people have to pay a high price. But, we believe in democracy. We value democracy. We want to be part of the free world. And the only solution is to stay together. And yes, it is difficult, but we have to help Ukraine win this war because, otherwise, all of us will be in danger.
Sasha Vakulina: Mr. Clamadieu, which underlying factors of the current economic downturn and potential recession facing Europe do you think are most exacerbated by the war? And to what degree will Europe’s economic recovery hinge on the outcomes of this war?
Jean-Pierre Clamadieu, Chairman of the Board at Engie Group: We are in a situation today where I’m pretty confident to say that there won’t be disruption in the supply of energy, neither gas nor electricity in Europe during the last few months of winter. Prices are starting to go down. We are not back where we were two years ago, but we are back at a level which is a bit more sustainable. And I don’t want to downplay the impact of this conflict. Obviously, this creates big competitiveness issues for industries in Europe versus the US. I think it will probably take another couple of years before the flow of LNG, is again offering visibility for European consumers. But, frankly speaking, thanks to the alignment of political decision-makers and industries, we’ve been able to go through this year of 2022 probably much better than we expected when this conflict started.
Sasha Vakulina: Obviously, the 24th of February in just about a month is going to mark one year. Everybody wants to know… it’s a $1 billion (or even more) question… How long we’re in this and how it’s going to go? What do you think of that?
Sanna Marin: The key elements are that we have to say very frankly and out loud that we will support Ukraine as long as needed. There isn’t that kind of scenario or possibility that the support from Europe or the Western world or democracies will diminish. That’s not a possibility. We will support as long as needed: five years, ten years, fifteen years… whatever it takes. We will support Ukraine and this will not stop. And it’s for Ukrainians to decide when they are ready to negotiate, when they are ready to make some peace agreement that they could agree on. And we will support. Our job is to support them. And another way that we could influence the situation: we are already sending arms, we are sending weapons, and we need to send more and more advanced weapons. We need to continue sending financial support and humanitarian support, taking refugees from Ukraine, putting heavier sanctions against Russia. But one thing that I really think that might affect the situation is the frozen assets. There are a lot of frozen assets from the Russian Central Bank, a lot of frozen assets from oligarchs. And we need to find solutions how to use these assets. I know it’s legally – and from a legal point of view – it’s a very difficult matter and very difficult issue. But I think we need to find solutions. How to use these funds to support Ukraine, to rebuild Ukraine? I think this could affect the war more than we think, because there are many interests behind these assets and this money. So, I think that might really affect the situation. It doesn’t solve everything, but I think that’s the one thing that we haven’t yet used. And I think we need to find the legal framework to do this, to use those assets to support Ukraine.
Sasha Vakulina: And this process of rebuilding and reconstruction, it’s not being postponed. It’s not like when the war is over that’s going to happen. No, you have all known when you visited the country, you know exactly that it has already started step-by-step. It’s from the regions, it’s from the suburbs. The places that have been liberated, they’re already being reconstructed. So this is, of course, something that is already on and is going to be in focus this year as well. Gregory Meeks, what’s your assessment of the possible trajectories of what the war in Ukraine might take going into 2023 and what possible trajectories could NATO take as well?
Gregory Meeks, Congressman for New York and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee: I think that you will continue to see Ukraine winning this war and fighting when we give them the ammunition and what they need to fight. Because that determination, that’s not going to change. That’s unshakeable. And as the prime minister just indicated, what is absolutely devastating to Putin is our solid unity. He’s hoping and looking for ways to shake it. So, we’ve got to make sure that… And I think that the Russian propaganda is going to be defeated moving forward. Some individuals, you know, when I moved around before and I talked to some people, even some in the United States at one point, listening to the propaganda, thinking that, you know, as Russia was talking about, that it was Ukraine that was being the aggressors. Obviously not true. So, I see us coming closer together and bringing in other allies from other areas of the world also. Because, as this intensifies and they see the humanitarian crises that is taking place, when they see that people are forced, that are being utilised, civilians are being utilised, killed, freezing to death in cold weather… When they see the human dangers that have been taking place and how it is a humanitarian criminal act that Putin’s committing, that will bring us even closer together. So, as I look at where we’re going down, people have talked about certain things because of the Congress has changed in the United States of America that now in the House, for example, it’s a split… Overwhelmingly the American people, overwhelmingly the people, for example, Democrats and Republicans, are focussed in standing strongly behind Ukraine. And that’s only going to intensify as we move forward, which makes me believe that that will lead to success in the long run as we get through the winter and into the summertime.
Sasha Vakulina: The other aspect I want to go to now is the war in Ukraine. As a consequence, we all have a greater appreciation of alliances as well and working together. And of course, NATO being one of them. So I’m going to ask you about that. You know, when Finland and Sweden obviously announced NATO aspiration, there was this tweet that said, I can’t remember the author and I apologise if you were the author, that what Putin tried to do, he wanted the Finland-isation of Ukraine, but instead what he did was the Ukraine-isation of Finland and Sweden. So, you are now on the way there. So how is the process going? Because Sweden and Finland’s NATO aspiration happened in response to the war in Ukraine. And how is it going? How is the cooperation happening and the solidarity as well? Because you are doing it not just yourself, but – you said it – you’re going to be doing it only hand-in-hand with Sweden. Because that’s another alliance, that’s another appreciation of alliances.
Sanna Marin: Well, the Finnish atmosphere and the mindset of people changed at the same time when Russia attacked Ukraine. Before that moment, if you asked Finnish people, do they think that Finland should join NATO, the majority would have said no. We have the possibility to apply. That’s very important that we have that possibility. But we didn’t have that kind of discussion, active discussion, before. And if you asked the majority of Finnish people or the parliament, they would have said: “No, we do not see that we will have to at this time practice to NATO club.” But, when Russia attacked Ukraine, the entirety modified. The global modified. Our neighbour was once now not the similar neighbour. It was once an competitive, an competitive neighbour that went throughout that border. And Finnish other folks requested themselves what’s the border that Russia would not move? And that is the NATO border. And that is why Finnish other folks sought after us to visit NATO. 188 parliamentarians out of 200 voted in favour of NATO club. So, we aren’t… We should not have 100%, however we’re very shut in our Parliament as neatly. And now we have this team spirit in Finland. We have this brotherly love and consensus concerning the NATO software. And I’m additionally more than happy that we made this determination on the identical time that our Swedish neighbours did, as a result of we also are sharing in fact the similar geopolitical surroundings, the similar geopolitical safety surroundings.
So, I feel from NATO’s viewpoint additionally it is essential that Finland and Sweden is making use of and coming into NATO in combination. Of direction, there are nonetheless two international locations that have not ratified: Hungary and Turkey. And I’ve talked, as an example, with Prime Minister Orban each time that we meet within the European Council. And he has mentioned that they’re going to ratify as quickly because the parliament will get started its time period this spring, optimistically very quickly. Turkey, we should not have that timetable, but. Of direction, we are hoping that that can occur quicker than later. We are pleasing the entire standards, we’re ticking the entire bins this is had to change into a NATO member. And in fact, as an example, Finland is already the usage of over 2% of our GDP on defence and now we have completed this for fairly a while. And we’re seeing a large number of improve from the Ukrainian other folks to struggle for his or her nation. They are preventing for his or her freedom, for his or her independence and their nation. And, for those who ask Finnish other folks how prepared they’re to protect Finland, I feel we’re ranked primary. Ukraine is quantity two. So, now we have been in battle with Russia and we all know what that is like. And we are not looking for ever once more, ever once more there to be a battle on Finnish soil. And that is why we’re making use of to NATO, in order that there would not be a battle in Finland ever once more. That’s the border that Russia would not move. And that is why we are making use of to NATO.
Sasha Vakulina: President Sandu, Moldova is making use of for the European Union. That’s every other alliance, in fact, and appreciation of it. How vital is that? How additionally has the view on it modified? Because Moldova has additionally skilled some opinion polls that weren’t essentially all the time supporting the theory. And, additionally, simply to practice up on what Gregory Meeks mentioned there, the propaganda factor, in fact, is one thing that came about so much in Moldova over years.
Maia Sandu: I in fact imagine that Moldova’s probability to live to tell the tale as a democracy is handiest inside the EU and simply being real looking about what is going to occur in our area within the subsequent, I do not know, ten, 15 years. Of direction, all of us hope for a victory, for a rapid victory of Ukraine, and that is going to occur. But, we can’t see Russia turning into a democratic nation very quickly. And because of this the demanding situations for the area are nonetheless going to be there. Moldova survived, I imply, controlled to handle the demanding situations that you simply requested me firstly to a large extent due to the improve we won from the EU and from the advance companions. And we’re very thankful. And you will need to have a strong Moldova. It’s vital for us, it is important for Ukraine, it is important for the EU. For the EU, you will need to have a relaxed and strong Ukraine. It is vital to have a relaxed and strong Moldova and that’s the reason why the EU expansion is vital. I feel Ukraine has proved it is paying the very best worth for democracy and for EU values. Moldovans had been doing their perfect. And sure, the propaganda remains to be sturdy and we’re preventing the propaganda. But now we have greater than 70% of other folks through the years, regardless of the propaganda, regardless of the poverty and the various issues we now have been going through. We have this consistent improve for the EU integration. And I feel the hot gesture via the generosity proven via the Moldovan other folks after they controlled to assist 600,000 to 700,000 Ukrainian refugees presentations that we price EU values. And we price peace and we price freedom. So, the EU expansion will make the EU more potent for the reason that EU wishes a relaxed and strong Ukraine, Moldova and the remainder of the international locations which might be aspiring for EU accession.
Sasha Vakulina: President Sandu, do you assume – as a protracted shot for the longer long term – do you assume that NATO aspirations are one thing that Moldova may just pass into after?
Maia Sandu: We do really feel how inclined we’re. Ukraine is protecting us actually and we’re taking steps to strengthen our defence sector. But we’re very real looking about what we will do. We are a democratic nation and we need to have the dialogue. There will have to be widespread improve. But we’re having this severe dialogue now on whether or not we will, via ourselves, protect ourselves in a brand new global the place we see that battle is an actual threat.
Sasha Vakulina: John-Pierre Clamadieu, how have the affects of the battle in Ukraine reshaped the worldwide power panorama and what are your expectancies relating to rushing up this transition clear of fossil gas dependency as neatly, and Russian, but additionally the transition normally? [00:18:54][14.3]
Jean-Pierre Clamadieu: I feel the problem for Europe is in reality to ensure that we will support our power device and that is totally aligned with the want to accelerate the power transition. We should not have any fossil assets in Europe, somewhat of coal, however it isn’t one thing we need to construct on. So, the problem now’s to ensure that we will accelerate the advance of renewables. The EU has an schedule, the Fit for 55 schedule. We want to ensure that the present scenario, the mitigation of a disaster, does now not decelerate this schedule. On the opposite. And what we see as of late is a variety of choices which certainly will have to create the prerequisites for us to hurry up the advance of renewables, to hurry up the advance of garage, accelerate the advance of hydrogen… With this goal of rushing up power transition, this may increasingly assist us succeed in strategic independence. And that is one thing that we completely want.
